LNBIG routed 12.4 BTC yesterday... how does that extrapolate to lightning network volume?

LNBIG routed 12.4 BTC yesterday... how does that extrapolate to lightning network volume?
Photo by Compare Fibre on Unsplash

With 25 Nodes, 5504 active channels, and a combined active capacity of 891 BTC, LNBIG and their nodes offer the largest amount of capacity on the Lightning Network.

At ~22% of the Lightning Network's active capacity, what sort of data can we attempt to infer on total network volume?

Network capacity and node data sourced from Exponential Layers

LNBIG leads all other nodes in aggregate in total capacity.  Bitfinex's two nodes and 823 BTC of combined active capacity are the second highest amount of combined capacity.

In addition to putting forth liquidity on the Lightning Network, offering liquidity and channel services, and driving overall adoption, LNBIG also offers incredibly transparent data on their routing operations.

Their latest Twitter posts show they routed 12.4 BTC one day ago and 11.3 BTC two days prior.  With this data, we can do a bit of back-of the-napkin math to begin estimating total network volume:

  • Active network capacity: 3,984 BTC
  • LNBIG active capacity: 891 BTC
  • LNBIG two day routing average: 11.9 BTC

11.9 BTC routed on 891 BTC in active capacity extrapolates to 53 BTC routed on 3,984 BTC of overall active network capacity (~$1.1 million in current USD)

With this pace, that would put yearly routed volume on Lightning Network at 20,750 BTC (~$421 million) assuming no growth in the network.  It's still a long way from the ~$10.4 trillion of Visa, but shows incredible growth rates and opportunity for the network ahead 📈

Thanks to LNBIG for all of their transparency sharing this data and driving forward network adoption.

Of course all of this data is extrapolated from one single source (which is not verified to begin with), so everything should be taken with a large grain of salt.

What other metrics and factors should be included in this analysis or would be helpful in general?

If you would like to dig into the stats behind this analysis and see all of the Routing Nodes and their details, please take a look at the Exponential Layers node directory.  And while you're there, be sure to claim and add your node to the public directory ⚡